Survey: U.S. Luxury Spending Down 27%

Pam Danziger

Luxury consumers in the U.S. cut back their level of luxury spending during the second quarter of 2012 by 8.2 percent from first quarter, according to a recent survey. The decline in spending was even more pronounced when comparing year-over-year, down 26.9 percent.

The Luxury Consumption Index for the April to June period shows that “luxury consumers got nervous about their financial status,” said Pam Danziger, president of Unity Marketing, which runs the quarterly survey of affluent Americans.

“The up and down trajectory of the LCI that we've seen over the past year measures continued uncertainty among affluent consumers who make up the heavy lifters in the overall consumer economy,” Danziger, said. “Looking back at over the past three years, we find that the luxury consumers, particularly the ‘ultra-affluents’ (the top 2 percent of U.S. households), unleashed pent up demand for luxury indulgences during 2010, but since then affluent confidence, and their willingness to spend on luxury, has been constrained.”

Danziger said that spending among ultra-affluents dropped to the lowest level seen since 2008. In addition, nearly one-third of the affluents surveyed believe the country is worse off now than it was three months ago.

“If this key consumer segment for the super-premium luxury brands continues apace, many luxury marketers will have a hard time meeting high comparable sales goals this year,”  Danziger said. For the next six months, Unity Marketing continues to expect challenges for luxury brands to encourage the affluent to trade up to their high-end brands, especially the lower-income HENRYs (High Earners Not Rich Yet with HHI $100,000-$249,900), who have taken a hit to their wealth and earning potential as a result of the recession and ongoing weakness in the U.S. economy.”

Danziger points to the recent quarterly release by leather goods maker Coach Inc as an example of a brand that seriously overestimated HENRY customers' willingness to spend. Coach tried to eliminate coupon promotions tied directly to its discount outlets, which are the company's biggest source of revenue, and which attract HENRY customers looking to stretch their dollars. This misstep, she said, led to Coach reporting weak same store sales growth in the quarter ending June 30, which then caused its stock to have its worst day on Wall Street since the 9/11 attacks.

“The number of people willing and able to pay a premium for luxury brands, like Coach, is getting smaller as this weak economy continues,” she said.

Unity Marketing has been calculating the LCI since 2004 based upon five key measures of luxury consumer confidence including their expectations for future spending on luxury, their personal financial conditions and their overall assessment of the economy as a whole, in surveys conducted every three months among over 1,200 affluent luxury consumers.

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Luxury Consumers Curtail Conspicuous Consumption

The strong demand for luxury goods and services in the U.S. during the past two to three years has largely come to an end as conspicuous consumption seems to be out of favor with affluent households, according to the results of a recent survey.

Luxury consumer confidence as measured in the Luxury Consumption Index “took a deep dive to levels not seen since the recessionary period of 2008 and 2009,” said Pam Danziger, president of Unity Marketing, which produces the quarterly survey.

The LCI saw a decline of nearly 15 percent in the average amount spent on luxury in the fourth quarter of 2011. The latest luxury tracking survey was conducted January 7-18, among 1,333 affluent luxury consumers with an average income of $286.300. They represent the top 20 percent of U.S. households

“The LCI has been on a topsy-turvy course since 2010, one quarter it goes up, the next down. But looking over the course of the last two years, the LCI lost more than it gained,” Danziger said. “At the start of 2012 the percentage of luxury consumers expressing a definite willingness to spend more on luxury (one of the major components of the index) was down.”

 

Tom Bodenberg, Unity Marketing's consumer economist, says the results of the survey show that luxury consumers have become “non-committal.”  

“There appears to be a trend of non-conspicuous consumption—perhaps as fallout from the 'Occupy' movement—among North American luxury consumers,” he said. “Buying behavior will shift to an almost 'hidden' form of consumption of luxury goods—where ostentation is minimized. The actionable demand for luxury goods and services, on the whole, is flat and still substantially below the levels of two to three years ago. What is interesting is that this apparently 'recession-proof' segment of the marketplace has also been greatly affected by the downturn. Media reports of a 'renaissance' in the luxury market appears to be limited to an extreme top tier of consumers, a small number compared with the bulk of the luxury marketplace potential.”

Danziger says affluent customers are looking to find value when they shop and luxury brands need to recognize this.

“If your brand doesn't deliver a suitable return on investment, they'll turn to competitive brands that will give them high quality without such an extravagant investment,” she said. “Take Coach, for example, ranked this quarter as the top fashion boutique destination among luxury consumers, as well as the number one fashion accessories brand. Coach offers its customers high quality, long lasting and still luxurious handbags but with an average price around $300, making the bags expensive for the masses, but affordable for the 'classes.”

Report Tracks ‘Dramatic Changes’ in the U.S. Jewelry Market

Pam Danziger

The U.S. jewelry market emerged from the recession to post a 7.5 percent increase in consumer expenditures from 2009 to 2010, after two successive years of negative growth. Yet the jewelry market today is very different than it was in 2006 and 2007 before the recession, according to a recently released report. 

Unity Marketing's Jewelry Report 2011 notes that jewelry makers and retailers who are expecting to pick up where they left off with the same products targeting the same consumers will find themselves in the lurch.

“Since 2006 Unity Marketing has tracked dramatic changes in the jewelry market related to consumers' product and shopping preferences,” said Pam Danziger, president of Unity Marketing.

For one thing, increased demand for men's jewelry accounts for much of the market's growth.

“Among the most profound shifts our research uncovered is the growing demand for men's jewelry,” Danziger said. “While the rising cost of materials accounts for some of the growth, increased demand for men's jewelry also contributed to the rise in the jewelry market from 2008 to 2010.” 

Jewelry marketers must innovate to find growth in the new economy, she added. “Jewelry marketers and retailers must take into account the many changes that their consumers have experienced coming out of the recession. Jewelry marketers have to be willing to challenge the old strategies and create new designs at new price points to be sold in new ways.”

An example of a company that took to innovation is Danish-based silver jewelry designer and manufacturer, Pandora. The company, known for its charm jewelry, posted worldwide growth of 92.6 percent to $1.2 billion in 2010.

Danziger explains each Pandora bracelet is a customizable piece that allows wearers to commemorate life events and interests with the addition of beads. With base bracelets in the $65 to $1,500 range and beads running from $40 to several hundred, this is a product that offers the opportunity for small splurges over time that will be meaningful to the owner.

“Rather than just selling another piece of jewelry, Pandora has transformed their product into an experience that its customers collect to commemorate milestone events and memories,” Danizger says. “Pandora is a game-changing competitor for traditional jewelry marketers. They sell a new type of jewelry item in new types of stores to a new value-conscious consumer eager to create a personal expression of their lives and memories.  Pandora has a built in repeat business that has a loyal following, since nobody can buy just one Pandora charm.”

The example of Pandora also speaks of dramatic change that continue through 2011. The company's spectacular rise since it went public in October 2010 was followed by an equally spectacular fall in August, when its stock fell 70 percent in a day, following a less-than-stellar second quarter report where the company’s outlook was drastically downgraded. The company blamed rising prices for silver and other jewelry making materials and poor execution.

Despite the company’s recent woes, its charms and other jewelry remain popular throughout the world.

‘The Luxury Drought’

There’s a gap between older affluent households and younger folks who are eager to purchase life’s better things but don’t quite have the earning power. Add to this a broad division between very high net worth households and those who are modestly well off and the recent recession that has changed buying habits, and you are looking at a foundation of slow growth in the luxury sector for the next ten years, according to marketing expert Pam Danziger.

“Demographics is destiny in lots of ways,” Danziger, president of Unity Marketing, Stevens, Pa., told an audience of luxury professionals Tuesday in New York. The she explained how demographic trends are creating a slow period in luxury spending.

The main consumers of luxury goods and services are affluent households, she explained. They are the top 20 percent of households in income with average earnings of about $170,000.

Danziger divides affluent households into three groups: 25-34 (made up of Millennials) who are “not quite there,” in terms of earnings; 35-44, “younger affluents” (mostly Generation X), the “most prolific consumers;” and the 45-54, “mature affluents” (mostly Baby Boomers), who don’t spend as much on luxury as their younger counterparts. The older affluents is the dominate age group in the luxury market today and until at least 2019. The recession plays into this but the main reason is because the younger affluent group is a relatively small compared to the other two age groups.

“Mature affluents are going to dominate the market between now and 2020,” she told the audience at the event sponsored by The Luxury Marketing Council. “We’ve got to wait for the Millennials, the babies of the baby boomers, to come on board and they’re not going to reach middle age and reach that window of affluence until about 2019 and 2020.”

To make her point, Danziger showed a chart of population projections of by age. One line which curves in an upward manner consists of mature affluents who “are really peaking.” Another line, which started high but then went on a downward curve represents the young affluents. The space in between is what she calls “the luxury drought.”



“This period is going to be dominated by more mature affluents who just do not spend as much or have as heavy an appetite for luxury as the younger affluents,” she said. 

“I call it a drought because it doesn’t mean that it’s drying up,” she continued. “It doesn’t mean the luxury market is going away, but it does mean you’re going to have to work harder to make ready in this marketplace. You’re going to have to work harder and be smarter than the next guy because there aren’t as many people that you can sell to.”

Danziger said marketers need to target the 25- to 34-year-old group by providing products and services geared for that demographic and engaging them with social media.

“We knows these people have a heavy appetite for luxury,” she said. “We know they are friending all the luxury brands on Facebook. But guess what? They don’t have the money to buy those brands yet so there’s going to be a lot of opportunity for marketers to figure out how to connect luxury brands with 25 to 34 years old before they get money in their pockets.”

Survey: Affluents Buying More Jewelry from Online and Discount Stores

The worst of the recession may be over for players in the jewelry industry but affluent consumers are trading diamonds and gold for jewelry made with white metals and other materials, according to a recent survey. In addition, these high-worth consumers are turning to online outlets and discount stores.

About 28 percent more affluent consumers purchased jewelry during the first half of 2010 than the same period last year, according to Unity Marketing's latest luxury tracking survey. In addition, the average amount an affluent customer spent on jewelry increased by 7.3 percent.

“More affluent consumers purchasing jewelry and spending more money translates into a newly revitalized market for luxury jewelry,” according to a statement in the survey results, which tracks the purchases of 1,359 affluent Americans.

While consumer spending on luxury jewelry is up, the survey, by the Stevens, Pa., market research firm, reveals changes in what jewelry products people are buying and their preferences in gemstones and metal fabrications. For example, affluent consumers spent less on gold and diamond jewelry in the first half of 2010 as compared to the same period last year. They turned instead toward white metals like sterling silver and platinum and colored semi-precious stones. Further the consumer market for "luxe" crystal and man-made or faux jewelry has never been hotter.

Post-recession the luxury consumers' favorite destinations for jewelry shopping have also shifted, according to the survey. Jewelry stores lost 21 percent of the luxury consumer's share of wallet in the first half of 2010 as the internet and discount stores, outlet stores and warehouse clubs captured more of their spending.

“These changes in product preferences and shopping patterns among affluents hint at even broader changes taking place among the overall jewelry consumer market at all income levels,” said Pam Danziger (pictured), Unity Marketing president and lead researcher in the new jewelry study.

This survey of luxury consumers was conducted July 3-8. The average income of participants was $306,700 and their net worth was $15.2 million. Their average age was 44.8 years old. A total of 45 percent of the participants were male and 55 percent female.

Luxury Consumption Index Stalls, Responding to Mixed Market Signals

Unity Marketing's Luxury Consumption Index stalled at 78.3 points in July 2010 as affluent consumers display uncertainty about prospects for the economy in the next three months. The survey’s founder says this apparent lull in the luxury economy “is reason for concern.”

Significantly more luxury consumers (36 percent) say the country as a whole is worse off now as compared with three months ago—a 5 percent rise, according to the survey of 1,349 luxury consumers was conducted July 3-8, 2010 (Average income $306,700 and net worth $15.2 million; 44.8 years; 45 percent male and 55 percent female).

Value positioning is key for luxury success through third and fourth quarters 2010, says Pam Danziger, president of Unity Marketing, a marketing consulting firm.

“Without a doubt the luxury consumer market is in a much better place today than it was a year or so ago, but the latest survey warns marketers not to ease up or be over-confident that the recession's effect on the luxury market are over,” Danziger said. “Nearly three out of four luxury consumers surveyed believe that the recession continues, which in turn impacts spending on luxury goods and services. Marketers are advised to continue to position luxury as a value proposition, by keeping luxury connotations and image up front in advertising, packaging and service, but communicating in a very subtle, almost one-on-one way, affordable pricing.”

Survey findings in the quarterly survey, include:

* Spending on luxury rose a modest 7.7 percent quarter-to-quarter. Luxury consumer spending, however, rose dramatically year-over-year, up nearly 60 percent from $19,952 on average to $31,665. Unity expects the same trends toward modest quarter-to-quarter spending increases to continue throughout 2010.

* Categories that attracted higher levels of spending among luxury consumers in the second quarter included luxury beauty and cosmetics, high-end cooking tools, men’s luxury clothing and apparel, men’s luxury fashion accessories, home electronics and travel.

* Aspirational affluents (incomes $100,000-$249,999) started to trade up once again to luxury, according to the survey. They increased luxury spending by nearly 30 percent in the quarter, their highest levels of spending seen throughout 2009. High-end clothing, fashion accessories, personal electronics, wine and spirits, and beauty products were the most popular items.

The pace of growth in luxury consumer spending will remain modest over the next two quarters, according to Tom Bodenberg, Unity Marketing's chief consumer economist.

“Affluents still have a lot of uncertainty about the economy which dictates caution when it comes to spending on luxuries,” he said. “We don't expect to see moderation on this cautious attitude until the beginning of 2011.”