NRF: Holiday Retail Sales Up 3% to $579.8 Billion

Total holiday retail sales increased 3 percent to $579.8 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. Meanwhile, online sales for the holiday season increased 11.1 percent. Both results were below forecasts.

NRF, the retail trade association projected growth to be 4.1 percent for the two-month holiday period. Shop.org, the multi-channel retail trade association, forecasted a 12 percent growth in online sales for the months of November and December.

Solid consumer spending in the month of December helped retailers finish the year with a healthy holiday shopping season, NRF said. However economic uncertainties sent a cautious consumer to the stores. December retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) increased 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted from November and increased 2.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

“For over six months, we’ve been saying that the fiscal cliff and economic uncertainty could impact holiday sales. As the number shows, these issues had a visible impact on consumer spending this holiday season,” said Matthew Shay, NRF President and CEO.

December retail sales, released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, showed that retail and food services sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as automobiles, gasoline stations, and restaurants) increased 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and increased 4.7 percent adjusted year-over-year.

Other findings from the NRF’s December retail sales report include:

• Clothing and clothing accessories stores' sales increased 1 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and increased 2.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Electronics and appliance stores’ sales decreased 0.6 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and decreased 0.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Furniture and home furnishing stores’ sales increased 1.4 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and increased 3.0 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• General merchandise stores’ sales were unchanged seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and decreased 3.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Health and personal care stores’ sales increased 1.4 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and decreased 0.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Nonstore retailers’ sales increased 0.5 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and increased 9.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores’ sales increased 0.6 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and increased 4.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

Please join me on the Jewelry News Network Facebook Page, on Twitter @JewelryNewsNet and on the Forbes Web site.

2012 Sales Off To A Good Start

Photo credit: Olivia Bucks/The Oregonian

Gift cards, redemptions and warm weather led to solid and widespread growth for January retail sales, according to two reports.

January retail industry sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) increased 0.9 percent seasonally adjusted from December and 4 percent unadjusted year-over-year, according to the National Retail Federation.

“Thanks to a combination of unseasonably warm weather across much of the country and millions of shoppers with gift cards burning holes in their pockets, retailers are still riding the tailwinds of consumers’ spending power,” said Matthew Shay, NRF President and CEO. “As a traditionally slower sales month for the industry, it’s encouraging to see such sustained growth in consumer spending and sentiment.”

Meanwhile, January retail sales data, released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, showed total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) increased 5.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year and 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month.

Among the highlights of NRF data are:

• Sales in sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores increased 1.1 percent seasonally month-to-month and 3.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• General merchandise stores’ sales increased 2 percent seasonally-adjusted over December and 4.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year. 

• Sales at building material, garden equipment and supplies dealers increased 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted from the previous month and a strong 10.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Sales at furniture and home furnishing stores decreased 0.2 seasonally adjusted from December and increased 7.9 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Electronics and appliance stores’ sales increased 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and decreased 1.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year, and sales at clothing and clothing accessory stores’ sales were flat over the previous month and increased 3.4 percent unadjusted over last year.

Retail Sales Expected to Increase by 3.4% in 2012, NRF Says

Photo Credit: The Oregonian

Retail industry sales are expected to rise 3.4 percent to $2.53 trillion in 2012, according to the National Retail Federation—slightly lower than the pace of 2011, in which sales grew 4.7 percent. NRF excludes the sales of autos, gas and restaurants in its definition of retail sales.

Many economists estimate that real U.S. GDP will rise approximately 2.1 to 2.4 percent as the economy is still being plagued by stubbornly high unemployment and uncertainty over job growth, NRF says.

“Our 2012 forecast is a vote of confidence in the retail industry and our ability to succeed even in a challenging economy, said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO “Over the last 18 months, retailers have been on the forefront of the economic recovery – creating jobs, encouraging consumer spending, and investing in America.”

Many factors will continue to influence the expected slowdown in consumer spending, but none remain more cumbersome than the stalled unemployment rate and lack of newly-created jobs, NRF said. A number of factors contributed to NRF’s 2012 economic forecast, including:

* Employment: The number of Americans out of work is at its lowest level in nearly three years, and the rise in employment and hours worked should bolster income and spending.

* Income growth: Consumers are constrained by modest growth in income. Congress extended the cuts in payroll taxes and unemployment benefits for only two months. While these provide a lift, and are likely, consumers may act cautiously until both are approved. Income is predicted to lag consumption on a year-over-year basis.

* Housing: While most of the economic reports dealing with housing have shown a little more strength, these reports should be treated with caution, as some of the improvement is due in part to unseasonably mild weather. NRF expects home sales and construction will improve slightly in 2012 with low interest rates and affordability at an almost 30 year high.

* Inflation: Increase costs have been a drain on consumer purchasing power due to extraordinary agricultural commodity price inflation as well as high oil prices due to global geopolitical tensions. NRF expects inflation to slow down near a two percent range. Rising gas prices may also put pressure on spending.

* Consumer Credit: Easier lending standards are expanding consumer credit. Revolving credit appeared to break out from its holding pattern showing a big surge in November, which indicates consumers have confidence to take on debt.

* Consumer confidence: Confidence continues to rebound from August lows but remains fragile given volatile financial market conditions and anemic housing markets.

Holiday Retail Sales Season Ends With 4.1% Rise, NRF says

Photo Credit: Reuters

Retail industry sales for the 2011 holiday season increased 4.1 percent, year-over-year, to $471.5 billion, according to the National Retail Federation, beating its expectation of 3.8 percent growth.

The holiday season defined by NRF runs from November 1 till December 31. Sales figures exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants.

"The right mix of strong promotions, lean inventories and an emphasis on value put retailers in the perfect position to end the year on a high note," said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “A better-than-expected holiday season is welcome news for an economic recovery that continues to be sluggish, and demonstrates retail’s powerful role as an engine of growth.”

December retail industry sales increased 4.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year and declined .06 percent seasonally adjusted from November.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Commerce Department reports that December retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) increased 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted over November and 6.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

Consumers stocked up on discretionary gift items in December, including home décor items, sporting goods, books and personal care items, NRF said. Despite a warmer-than-usual month, apparel sales performed extremely well. Though electronics and appliance stores saw growth in November, the shift in spending put a damper on those stores’ December sales.

Growth and October Retail Sales and September Jewelry Sales

Retail sales in October increased 0.7 percent from September and 4.7 percent year-over-year led by discretionary purchases and growth in all categories, according to the National Retail Federation.

Meanwhile, October retail sales released by the U.S. Commerce Department show that total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) increased 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 6.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

“Retailers’ early holiday promotions seemed to strike the right chord with shoppers last month,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “Knowing the economy is still a big factor in customers’ shopping decisions, retailers will continue to offer great deals and exceptional value throughout the holiday season.”

Earlier this month, NRF forecast holiday sales to rise 2.8 percent this year to $466 billion. NRF defines holiday sales as retail industry sales in the months of November and December.

U.S. jewelry store sales for the month of September rose 22 percent year-over-year to $2.12 billion, according to government figures quoted by Rapaport. The consumer price index for jewelry rose 8 percent in September. In its advanced retail summary report for the month of October, also reported by Rapaport, the government said U.S. department store sales fell 0.7 percent to $14.4 billion. Retail trade sales rose 7.3 percent year on year in October. Retail and food sales, excluding automotive related revenue, rose 6.8 percent to $344 billion during the month of October.

Meanwhile, NRF October data for specific retail categories includes the following:

• Electronics and appliance stores’ monthly sales grew the most in two years, increasing 3.7 percent seasonally adjusted over the previous month and 3.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Unseasonal winter-like weather helped boost traffic at building material and garden equipment stores, whose sales grew 1.5 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and a solid 6.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores’ sales increased 1.3 percent over September and 7 percent unadjusted from the previous year.

• Health and personal care stores sales increased 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted over September and 4.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Sales at clothing and clothing accessories stores decreased 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted over the previous month, but increased 4.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

September Retail Sales Show Strong Growth

Retail sales increased 0.4 percent from August and a better-than-expected 5.7 percent over last September, as shoppers continued to show strength during a weak economic recovery, according to the National Retail Federation.

Meanwhile, September retail sales released by the U.S. Commerce Department show that total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) increased 1.1 percent month-to-month and 8.6 percent over last year, partially due to strong auto sales.

“The American consumer and the retail industry continue to lead this recovery, and strong September retail sales are just what the economy needs right now,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “The unexpectedly strong sales increase in September may work to dampen fears of a double-dip recession and could indicate an economic and employment rebound.”

Much of September’s strength came as a result of retail sales increases due to Hurricane Irene and an influx of shoppers who chose to complete back-to-school shopping later this year. Building materials stores rose 6.4 percent over last year, sporting goods stores were up 7.2 percent and clothing store sales increased 8.3 percent.  August retail sales were revised upward to 0.4 from July, which was originally reported as 0.1%.

Earlier this month, NRF forecast holiday sales to rise 2.8 percent this year to $466 billion. NRF defines holiday sales as retail industry sales in the months of November and December.

What Recession? NRF Projects a 2.8% Holiday Sales Increase

On the heels of a holiday season that outperformed most analysts’ expectations, holiday retail sales for 2011 are expected to increase 2.8 percent to $465.6 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. While that growth is far lower than the 5.2 percent increase retailers experienced last year, it is slightly higher than the ten-year average holiday sales increase of 2.6 percent.

“Retailers are optimistic that a combination of strong promotions and lean inventory levels will help them address consumer caution this holiday season,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “While businesses remain concerned over the viability of the economic recovery, there is no doubt that the retail industry is in a better position this year to handle consumer uncertainty than it was in 2008 and 2009.”

Though several economic indicators paint a solid picture for the holiday season–including 14 consecutive months of retail sales growth and a substantial reduction in household debt–continued consumer uncertainty over the stock market, higher gas and food prices, fiscal policy and sputtering job growth will impact spending this holiday season.

The retail trade association also estimates that retailers will hire 480,000-500,000 seasonal workers, which is comparable to the 495,000 seasonal employees they hired last year. This is in addition to 100,000 people retailers have hired since August.

August Retail Sales Flat as Consumer Spending Stalls

Retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) in August increased 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted over July and 6 percent unadjusted year-over-year, according to the monthly survey by the National Retail Federation, a retail trade association.

The NRF results are in line with data released by the U.S. Commerce Department that shows total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) increased 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 9 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

“Consumer spending in August was tempered by a continued lack of confidence in the strength of our economy,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “Having carried the brunt of the economic recovery so far, consumers may be waiting for good news in terms of employment and market stability, cautiously spending on things they need and thinking twice about things they want.”

Specific sales results from the NRF survey include:

* Sales at electronic and appliance stores increased 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 2.5 percent unadjusted from last year. Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores’ sales increased 2.4 percent seasonally adjusted over July and 9.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

* Health and personal care stores sales increased 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted over July and 5.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

* Building material and garden equipment and supplies stores sales increased 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted over the previous month and 9 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

NRF: Retail Sales Up 0.3% in June

Retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) in June increased 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted from May and 5.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year, according to data from the National Retail Federation, which notes that it’s the 12th conservative month of retail sales growth.

The organization said warm weather, lower gas costs and strong Father’s Day promotions put consumers in a spending mood in June.

“A solid year of growth in sales provides further evidence that retailers continue to lead the charge in the economic recovery,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “While spending continues to surpass expectations, sustained growth in the retail sector depends on a strong labor market.”

“Retailers are hoping this momentum continues through the back to school season,” added Jack Kleinhenz, NRF chief economist. “Knowing that shoppers remain concerned about the economy, companies have already begun offering aggressive promotions to entice shoppers.”

June retail sales released by the U.S. Commerce Department show total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) increased 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 8.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

Specific sales results from NRF include:

• Clothing and clothing accessories stores’ sales increased 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted over May and a 7.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year. Sales at building material and garden equipment stores increased 1.3 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 8.5 percent unadjusted over last year.

• Sales at electronic and appliance stores decreased 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and fell 2.3 percent unadjusted from last year. Home furnishings stores sales decreased 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted over May and increased 0.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Health and personal care stores sales decreased 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted over May but increased 3.9 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

April Marks 10th Month of Retail Sales Growth

Retail sales increased for the tenth straight month in April, further evidence that the retail sector and consumer spending continue to lead the economic recovery, according to the National Retail Federation. However, the amount of sales growth fell short when compared to prior months.

Retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) for April increased 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted from March and 4 percent unadjusted year-over-year, a positive but modest increase compared to previous months’ results, evidence that some consumers are beginning to feel the strain of high food and gas costs, NRF said Thursday.

Mother’s Day Jewelry Sales Expected to Reach $3 Billion

Jewelry is expected to be the second most popular gift category this year for Mother’s Day, according to the National Retail Federation.

More than 31 percent of persons responding to the NRF’s 2011 Mother’s Day Consumer Intentions and Actions survey said they are planning to buy mom silver, gold or diamonds, a 19 increase from last year. Total spending on jewelry is expected to reach $3 billion.

Total spending for Mother’s Day is also forecasted to rise, according to the survey conducted by BIGresearch. The average person celebrating the holiday is expected to spend $140.73 on gifts, up from $126.90 last year, and a return to 2008 spending levels. Total spending is expected to reach $16.3 billion.

Men will spend an average of $168.84 on the women in their life this Mother’s Day, compared to $114.01 women will spend. Adults 25-34 years old will spend the most ($191.35), followed by 18-24 year olds ($183.38) and 35-44 year olds ($155.97).

“Americans are in a much better position to spend this year and will push the daily stresses of high gas and food costs aside for one day to celebrate the most important women in the world to them,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO.

Electronics will be the most popular gift this year, with 13.3 percent saying they will purchase a smartphone, camera or tablet device for Mother’s Day, up 48 percent from last year. In addition, those buying electronics will shell out $94.91, up 8 percent from last year.

When it comes to where people will shop, the survey found that 32 percent of gift buyers will shop at a department store, the most in the survey’s history. Others will shop at discounters (29.6 percent), specialty stores including jewelers, florists and electronics stores (31.8 percent), online (21.5 percent) or at a specialty clothing store (7.1 percent).

Of the 83.1 percent celebrating Mother’s Day this year, most will shop for their mom (59.9 percent), followed by their wife (19.6 percent), daughter (9.6 percent), grandmother (8 percent), sister (8.4 percent), friend (7.3 percent) or godmother (1.8 percent).

Restaurants and other businesses will also benefit from the billions of dollars that come in for one of the biggest holidays of the year. Nearly 55 percent of all celebrants will treat mom to a nice dinner or brunch, spending a total of $3.1 billion, according to the survey. Nearly 32 percent of Americans will buy mom clothing or accessories ($1.3 billion total), and 65 percent will buy mom flowers ($1.9 billion). Consumers will also shell out $1.6 billion on gift cards and $1.2 billion on personal services such as a trip to a day spa.

NRF: March Retail Sales Up Nearly 4%

Retail sales in March increased across the board for the ninth straight month, according to the National Retail Federation. Sales for March (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) increased 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted from February and 3.9 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

“Shoppers last month were eager to take advantage of retailers’ spring promotions on everything from apparel to outdoor furniture,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the world's largest retail trade association. “While current indicators point to a more confident consumer, increasing gas prices and a cramped job market could hamper consumer spending during the upcoming summer months, a key time of year for retailers.”

March retail sales released Wednesday by the U.S. Commerce Department show total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) increased 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted over February and 7.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year. 

Warmer weather helped building material, garden equipment and supplies dealers see increased sales last month, increasing 2.2 percent seasonally adjusted from the previous month and 5.5 percent unadjusted over last year, according to NRF figures. Clothing and clothing accessory stores sales rose 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 3.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year. 

Electronics and appliance stores also saw solid gains with March sales up 2.1 percent seasonally adjusted from the previous month and 3.6 percent unadjusted over last year in those stores. Sales at grocery stores increased 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 4.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year. Health and personal care stores sales increased 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted over February and 5.1 percent unadjusted over last year. 

Also benefiting from warmer weather, furniture and home furnishing stores sales increased 3.6 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 3.8 percent unadjusted year-over-year.  

Retail Sales Continue to Show Improvement

Improvements in the U.S. economy bolstered retailer’s February sales, reflecting improved consumer sentiment as it relates to spending, according to the National Retail Federation.

Retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) for February 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted from January and 4.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year, NRF said.

“Retailers have done a commendable job keeping their inventory levels where they need to be, while still offering attractive promotions for those who are eager to spend,” said Matthew Shay NRF president and CEO. “The big challenge retailers will face in the coming months, however, will be going head to head with high cotton, food and energy prices.”

“February retail sales are in sync with evidence of the expanding economy,” added Jack Kleinhenz NRF chief economist. “While February is typically a slow month for retailers, consumers showed their spending power, though it’s too soon to tell what type of impact the spike in gasoline prices will have on consumers this spring.”

February retail sales released today by the U.S. Department of Commerce show total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) increased 1 percent seasonally adjusted over January and 9.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year.  

Clothing and clothing accessory stores sales increased 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and improved 4.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year. Department stores showed strength with a gain of 1 percent over January but saw a decline of 1.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

Sales at building material, garden equipment and supplies dealers, a sector hit hard by the collapsed housing market, rose 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted from January and 9.6 percent unadjusted over last year. Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores sales increased 1.3 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 5.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

Sales at health and personal care stores slowed from the previous month, decreasing 0.3 percent adjusted from January, but grew 5.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year. The opposite is true for electronics and appliance stores whose sales increased 0.9 percent seasonally adjusted from the previous month but decreased 1.7 percent unadjusted over last year.

NRF Forecasts 4% Increase in Retail Sales for 2011

Retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) will increase 4 percent from 2010, according to the National Retail Federation 2011 economic forecast. The retail trade association said the “cautiously optimistic outlook” comes on the heels of seven consecutive months of retail sales growth and better than expected holiday sales.

Consumer spending ended on a strong note in 2010 thanks to robust holiday spending figures, the prospects for economic growth are starting to look better, NRF said. However, small businesses hiring freezes and higher energy costs for consumers could curtail the speed and strength of the retail spending momentum.

“With retailers leading the charge, the economic recovery appears to be gaining some steam,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “The fate of the Main Street resurgence ultimately rests with policymakers on Capitol Hill. As Congress begins tackling key issues like deficit reduction and tax reform, it is critical we support policies that encourage job creation, consumption and business investment.”

According to NRF’s latest Retail Sales Outlook report, while consumers are once again showing a willingness to spend, inflation from rising commodity prices and continued high unemployment could become obstacles to economic growth.

Holiday Retail Sales Up 5.7%

Retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) for December rose 5.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year and 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted from November, according to the National Retail Federation.

As a result, preliminary sales for the November and December 2010 holiday season rose 5.7 percent to $462 billion, surpassing NRF's forecast of 3.3 percent. This represents the best holiday sales gain since 2004 when holiday sales increased 5.9 percent.

“In spite of weakness in employment and rising gas prices, consumers showed they still have spending power which helped retailers when it counted most,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “Retailers did a tremendous job planning for the season by managing inventory and hitting the right price points that helped them tap into pent up demand.”

Meanwhile the U.S. Commerce Department show total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) increased 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted over November and 8.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year. 

Sales growth from November varied in strength while year-over-year sales showed great strength, NRF said. Sales at clothing and clothing accessory stores decreased 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted over last month but increased a solid 8.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year. Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores sales increased 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 8.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year. 

Though the US is still dealing with a weak housing environment, building material and garden equipment stores sales increased 1.9 seasonally adjusted over last month and year-over-year growth of 12 percent.

Electronics and appliance stores sales decreased 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted over November but increased 1.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year. Sales at health and personal care stores 1.6 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 7.2 percent unadjusted over December 2009.

$45 Billion Spent on Black Friday, Jewelry Sales Up 2.6%

Approximately 212 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend, up from 195 million last year, according to the National Retail Federation. People also spent more, with the average shopper this weekend spending $365.34, up from last year’s $343.31. Total spending reached an estimated $45 billion.

“While Black Friday weekend is not always an indicator of holiday season performance, retailers should be encouraged that a focus on value and discretionary gifts has shoppers in the spirit to spend,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “As retailers look ahead to the first few weeks of December, it will be important for them to keep momentum going with savings and incentives that holiday shoppers simply can’t pass up.”

According to the survey conducted over the weekend by BIGresearch, the number of people who began their Black Friday shopping at midnight tripled this year from 3.3 percent last year to 9.5 percent in 2010. By 4 a.m., 24 percent of Black Friday shoppers were already at the stores. Thanksgiving Day openings have also been a boon to the industry, as the number of people who shop on Thanksgiving—online and in stores—has doubled over the past five years, from 10.3 million in 2005 to 22.3 million in 2010.

The number of people who purchased jewelry over the weekend rose substantially, from 11.7 percent last year to 14.3 percent this year. In addition, more people purchased gift cards, toys and books and electronic entertainment than a year ago.

“It’s certainly encouraging to see an increase in traffic and sales from the four-day holiday weekend, however, consumers still have concerns about the economy, jobs, and paying down debt,” said Phil Rist, EVP, BIGresearch.  “It was the consumers’ search for deals and bargains that drove the weekend traffic rather than their confidence in the economy.”

While shoppers seemed focused on getting good deals, items of strong value seemed to win out over the absolute lowest prices, according to the survey. Both department stores (52% this year vs. 49.4% last year) and clothing stores (24.4% vs. 22.9%) saw healthy increases in traffic, while the percentage of people who shopped at discounters declined from 43.2 percent last year to 40.3 percent this year. The percentage of people who shopped online this weekend rose 5.1 percent, from 28.5 percent last year to 33.6 percent this year – a strong sign heading into Cyber Monday, a marketing term created by Shop.org, a subsidiary of NRF, for the Monday immediately following Black Friday for online shoppers.

The survey, conducted Nov. 25-27, polled 4,306 consumers and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percent.

2010 Holiday Sales Expected to Rise

After two anemic years of retail sales for the November-December holiday season, two retail associations are predicting a modest improvement in retail sales this year.

Holiday sales are expected to increase 2.3 percent this year to $447.1 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. While that growth remains slightly lower than the ten-year average holiday sales increase of 2.5 percent, it would be a marked improvement from both last year’s 0.4 percent uptick and the dismal 3.9 percent holiday sales decline retailers experienced in 2008.

Meanwhile, the International Council of Shopping Centers predict that holiday sales this year will rise 2.5 percent over last year’s season, a considerable improvement over last holiday season’s 0.5 percent gain.

“While many consumers will be wishing for apparel and electronics this holiday season, retailers are hoping the holidays bring sustainable economic growth,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “Though the retail industry is on stronger footing than last year, companies are closely watching key economic indicators like employment and consumer confidence before getting too optimistic that the recession is behind them.”

As in previous years, retailers are expected to focus on supply chain efficiencies and inventory control this holiday season to limit their exposure to excess merchandise and unplanned markdowns, the NRF said. Companies are also expected to leverage new channels—like mobile—to drive sales and provide added service to customers who want to shop anytime, anywhere.

“While consumers have shown they are once again willing to spend on what’s important to them, they will still be very conscientious about price,” said Jack Kleinhenz, NRF chief economist. “Retailers are expected to compensate for this fundamental shift in shopper mentality by offering significant promotions throughout the holiday season and emphasizing value throughout their marketing efforts.”

The ICSC say that much of the growth will be led by discounts.

“Prices and uncertainty will weigh heavily on the holiday outlook,” said Frank Badillo, an economist with consulting firm Kantar Retail. “Ongoing price competition among retailers, led by Walmart, is more likely to take a toll on sales gains than boost unit demand among shoppers who remain value conscious. We expect shopper demand to remain modest as job and income gains remain constrained by reluctance among firms to invest and hire amid an uncertain outlook. If that uncertainty turns to confidence in the weeks ahead, however, then holiday sales could climb more than forecast.”

The soft-sales trend will continue into the first half of 2011, Badillo says.